As Google Shifts to AI Search, Legacy SEO Faces a New Reality

“SEO Isn’t Dead; It’s Deprecated”

These five words from Michael King’s SMX Advanced presentation on “the end of SEO as we know it” have resonated deeply since we watched his insightful talk earlier this month.

On the surface, everything may seem unchanged for SEO professionals. After all, Google processes a staggering 5 trillion searches annually . However, a closer look reveals a different story.
According to SparkToro and Datos data, only 360 out of every 1,000 U.S. Google searches result in clicks to the open web.

Breaking it down further, this means Google directs an estimated 1.8 trillion searches to external websites each year. The remaining 3.2 trillion searches either lead to zero-click outcomes or direct users to other Google properties like YouTube, Maps, or Images.

It’s the End of SEO as We Know It…

The declaration of SEO’s death has become a recurring theme since the early 2000s. For two decades, it has been our industry’s version of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf.” Yet, even in that fable, the wolf eventually arrived.

There are numerous signs suggesting that what King predicted is coming true.

Google Search Traffic’s ‘Inevitable’ Decline

Internal memos from Google executives, revealed during one of the company’s ongoing monopoly trials, confirm this shift. In October, they outlined three potential scenarios:

• (1) Search traffic remains stable.
• (2) Traffic shifts to Gemini.
• (3) Traffic moves to ChatGPT.

While option (1) is ideal, the worst-case scenario is (3). To mitigate this risk, Google is actively supporting (2).

Google’s AI Evolution

Google is steadily moving toward AI Overviews. During Alphabet/Google CEO Sundar Pichai’s 2024 earnings call, he announced that the Search Generative Experience (SGE) experiment would be rebranded as AI Overviews and rolled out to users by default.

Additionally, AI Mode appears to represent the future of search, whether as the default interface or integrated into AI Overviews.

What Googlers Have Told Us

Since its inception, Google’s goal has been to create the “Star Trek” computer—a system that delivers answers directly rather than lists of links. As Google’s first employee, Craig Silverstein, stated in 2008:

“We need to make search as good as a human answering a search request. We need to be like the computer on ‘Star Trek.’”

By 2033, conversation—not a search box—will serve as the primary interface, according to DeepMind cofounder Mustafa Suleyman.

Even Google’s mission statement underscores this direction:

“Google’s mission is to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful.”

Noticeably absent is any mention of providing links or driving traffic to external websites.

Organic Traffic Is Indeed Vanishing

In his 2023 article for Search Engine Land (How Search Generative Experience Works and Why Retrieval-Augmented Generation Is Our Future), King predicted a sharp decline in clicks and click-through rates. His forecast has proven accurate.

Gartner’s 2024 prediction that search engine traffic would drop by 25% by 2026 was met with skepticism from many SEO professionals. However, some websites have already experienced significant declines—some even more severe than anticipated.

Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince is among those taking this issue seriously. He has publicly criticized Google and other AI platforms, accusing them of practices that threaten the web’s business model by diverting traffic away from publishers.

The Great Decoupling of Google Search

Clicks are stagnating or declining, yet impressions are rising. What’s behind this trend?

AI Overviews now occupy the first organic position, counting as a single block. If your website is cited in an AI Overview, it registers as an impression, but it doesn’t necessarily translate to clicks. This phenomenon has been described as the “great decoupling” by Google’s Martin Splitt.

Splitt explains:

“We’re seeing that clicks might stagnate or go down, but either people convert later in the customer journey, without search involved in the later stage directly (no search click, but still a conversion, despite nearly impossible to attribute to an earlier impression). And the clicks you get through search are more likely to be clicks that convert.”

In simpler terms, attributing success to SEO efforts is becoming increasingly challenging.

Generative Information Retrieval

Until now, SEO has operated on deterministic principles, where specific inputs yielded predictable outcomes. However, we are transitioning into a new era of probabilistic information retrieval.

Instead of receiving lists of links, users now encounter synthesized, direct answers influenced by patterns, personalization, and word choice. These responses often mimic the tone and style of a helpful assistant.

For further insights, explore how generative information retrieval is reshaping search.

It’s Not Just SEO

To clarify, SEO isn’t disappearing—it still matters and will continue to be relevant for the foreseeable future. Lily Ray, vice president of SEO strategy and research at Amsive, recently published an insightful article titled The Rise of AI Search Does Not Mean ‘SEO is Dead’ . In it, she emphasizes that while the landscape is evolving, foundational SEO practices remain critical for success in digital marketing.

While some industry voices discuss rebranding SEO (a term that has long faced criticism, as Mike Grehan frequently points out, since we don’t truly “optimize” search engines), the emergence of a new paradigm is undeniable. The rise of AI-driven search and generative technologies has sparked a wave of innovation, leading to the creation of new terminologies and strategies to address these shifts.

Several terms have surfaced to describe this transformation:

• SEO: No longer just search engine optimization, but evolving into search everywhere optimization, as discussed by Nikki Lam, VP and head of SEO at NP Digital, in her July 2024 article Search Everywhere Optimization: 7 Platforms SEOs Need to Optimize for Beyond Google. This concept highlights the need to optimize content across multiple platforms beyond traditional search engines, such as social media, voice assistants, and other emerging interfaces.
• GEO: Generative engine optimization, introduced in a December 2023 research paper, has gained traction in marketing circles. Search Engine Land, the leading digital publication covering SEO and PPC trends, features GEO as a category and explains its significance in a popular article. GEO focuses on optimizing content to align with generative AI systems that synthesize answers directly for users.
• AEO: Answer engine optimization, which emerged after GEO, is now widely regarded as synonymous with GEO. This approach centers on ensuring that your content is structured to provide clear, concise answers to user queries, especially in environments where AI generates responses.
• AI SEO: This term refers to using AI tools to assist with SEO tasks, such as keyword research, content optimization, and performance analysis. (There was also AIO —AI optimization—but Google’s introduction of AI Overviews rendered the term obsolete.) AI SEO leverages advancements in machine learning to streamline workflows and enhance decision-making.
• LLMO/LLMSEO: These terms haven’t gained traction and are generally considered unwieldy. They refer to leveraging large language models (LLMs) for SEO purposes, but their complexity and lack of widespread adoption have limited their use in practical discussions.

As the industry evolves, professionals must adapt to these new frameworks while maintaining a strong foundation in traditional SEO principles. For example, tools like Majestic, which provide robust data for backlink analysis, Trust Flow, and Topical Trust Flow, remain essential for understanding domain authority and link-building strategies. Similarly, insights from platforms like Ahrefs, which emphasize the importance of local SEO for optimizing online presence in specific geographic areas, continue to play a pivotal role in comprehensive SEO strategies.

Ultimately, the integration of legacy SEO practices with emerging methodologies like GEO and AEO will define success in the age of AI-driven search. By staying informed and embracing these changes, marketers can position themselves ahead of the curve in an increasingly competitive digital landscape.

What It All Means

Legacy SEO remains effective and will continue to deliver results for some time. However, the return on investment for many websites is unlikely to match previous years. That’s the new reality.

Clicks and traffic should not be dismissed as vanity metrics. Impressions alone won’t sustain operations. As Cyrus Shepherd, owner of Zyppy SEO consulting, recently emphasized on LinkedIn:

“As Google reduces traffic to publishers, can we please stop saying ‘clicks don’t matter?’ Not every website runs on e-commerce. Not every website is a ‘business’ either. The open web was—and is—a rich source of information, freely distributed, spreading ideas and knowledge. Clicks helped support that information. Clicks helped create magical things.”

Yet, the truth remains: Google organic search traffic is declining and won’t rebound.

Evolving Beyond Legacy SEO

Continue practicing legacy SEO, but adapt to the changing landscape. As Ryan Jones, senior vice president of SEO at Razorfish, articulated on LinkedIn:

“It’s not about the query anymore. It’s about semantic relevance to the topic.”

The future lies in building a notable, trustworthy brand that earns citations and mentions across platforms, contexts, and mediums.