How to Do Realistic SEO Forecasting Step-by-Step (+ Template)

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We set goals, create content, and check how much we’re growing. But sometimes, we still wonder: “Are our goals too high or too low? Are we doing okay?”

This feeling is normal. But it also means we might need an SEO forecast. At Backlinko, we use SEO forecasting all year round. It helps us plan what content to make, track how much it will cost, and guess how much traffic and sales we can get. This helps us choose the right things to work on.

If something isn’t working, we can change it. It also helps us build trust with the people we work with. This guide shows two simple ways to make an SEO forecast. It also includes a spreadsheet that helps you do it in just a few minutes.

Just upload your site’s data from Google Search Console (GSC), and the tool will do the math for you.

Quick Look at the Forecasting Methods

There are two main ways to guess your future SEO results:

  • Keyword-Based Forecasting: Best when you want to test new topics or page ideas.
  • Trend-Based Forecasting: Good for guessing growth based on your past SEO data.

Which one should we use?

Let’s go through both methods step by step. We’ll start with the easier one:

Method 1: Forecasting Using Keywords

You can do this manually or use an SEO tool.

How to Do It by Hand

Use this formula to guess your traffic:

Estimated Monthly Traffic = Total Keyword Search Volume × Average CTR

Let’s look at an example.

Let’s say we want to make a page for the keyword “best hiking boots for women.”

  • This keyword is searched 10,000 times each month.
  • Our page ranks at position 10 now, but we hope to move up to position 6.
  • From past data, we know pages at position 6 get about a 2% click rate (CTR).

Now, we use the formula: 10,000 × 2% = 200 visits per month.

This gives us a simple idea of how much traffic we might get.

But this method has limits. It doesn’t look at seasonal changes, new competitors, or shifts in how people click. To make better guesses, we can use tools like Semrush. These tools use smarter math and more data to give better forecasts based on different things that can affect SEO.

How to Estimate Keyword-Based Traffic Using Semrush
First, open Semrush’s Keyword Overview tool. Type in your main keyword and your website, then click Search.

For example, let’s say we want to focus on the topic “memory foam mattress” for a mattress website like Casper.

Semrush will then show three important things:

  • Potential Traffic – the number of visits we might get each month for this keyword, based on our site’s strength and ranking.
  • Topic Traffic – the total visits we could get from all similar keywords under the same topic.
  • Potential Ranking – where our page might show up on Google compared to other top sites.

In this case, Semrush says we could get 1,000 visits a month from “memory foam mattress.” But if we write more in-depth, helpful content about this topic, we could get 2.6 times more traffic.

To find more related keywords, click “See topic details.” This gives us more ideas that people are searching for.

When checking these keywords, look at:

  • Trend – is this keyword getting more popular or less popular over time?.
  • Potential Traffic – how many visits we might get for each keyword.
  • Personal Keyword Difficulty (PKD%) – how hard it is for our website to rank in the top 10 for that keyword.

Method 2: Using Trend Data for Forecasting

If our website has traffic data from at least 16 to 24 months, we can use trend forecasting. This is one of the best ways to guess how our traffic might grow.

Why is this method good? Because it uses real data from our site’s past to show what might happen in the future.

Usually, doing this kind of forecast needs special tools or coding (like Python). But to make it easy, we use a custom SEO forecasting spreadsheet. It does all the hard work for us.

We made this tool with Andrew Charlton from Crawl Consultancy. It helps us do forecasts quickly, even if we don’t know how to code.

We just need to upload our website’s past data, and the tool shows:

  • A summary of the forecast.
  • Different growth plans.
  • A breakdown of traffic month by month.

Here’s how to use it:

Step 1: Export Data from Google Search Console (GSC):
Start by getting the last 16 months of your site’s data from GSC. This much data is needed to see trends and seasonal changes.

Here’s how to do it:

  • Open Google Search Console.
  • Choose your website (property).
  • Click on the “Performance” tab.
  • Set the date to the last 16 months.
  • Click “Export” and choose “Download CSV”.
  • Open the downloaded folder and look for a file named Dates.csv

Step 2: Add the CSV File to the Spreadsheet:
Next, we need to add the data from Google Search Console to the spreadsheet.

Here’s how:

  • Go to the Google Search Console Import tab in the sheet.
  • Click on the marked cell (usually at the top-left corner of the table).
  • In Google Sheets, click File > Import, then upload the Dates.csv file.
  • For Import location, choose Replace data at selected cell and click Import data.

The sheet will then clean up the data, group it by month, and send it to the forecast tool.

Step 3: Check the 12-Month Forecast:
Now that the data is in, go to the Dashboard tab.

Here, we can see:

  • The full traffic forecast for the next 12 months.
  • A side-by-side view of the last 12 months compared to what’s coming.
  • The year-over-year (YOY) change in both the number of clicks and per cent.
  • A line chart showing how traffic is expected to grow month by month.

Step 4: Change the Growth Numbers if Needed:
SEO traffic doesn’t always grow in a straight line. That’s why we can adjust the forecast to see different outcomes.

In the Forecast Adjustments box, there are two fields:

  • Conservative Adjustment (%) – like -10% if we want to stay careful.
  • Aggressive Adjustment (%) – like +30% if we expect big results.

Once we enter the numbers, the chart and totals update right away.

Why do we do this?
Let’s say our website grows by around 5% every month. But in the next few months, we plan to:

  • Post 10 new, SEO-friendly blog articles.
  • Update some of our best old content.
  • Run a PR campaign that usually brings good backlinks.

From past experience, we know this could bring 20–30% more traffic. So we add +30% in the aggressive field.

Now think about the opposite situation. Maybe our budget is cut, or a writer goes on leave, and we can’t publish as much.

In that case, we might enter -15% in the conservative field to show a slower period.

Not Sure What Numbers to Use? Try These Tips:

  • Look at past data: For example, “Last time we added 10 blog posts, traffic grew by 18% in two months.”
  • Check your resources: If we have fewer people or delays, maybe lower traffic by 10–20%.
  • Use outside tools: Semrush, Ahrefs, or reports from others in the same field can give good estimates (e.g., “competitor updates led to 15% more traffic”).

Even if the numbers aren’t perfect, trying different cases helps us make better, more useful forecasts.

How to Show Your SEO Forecast Clearly

Showing your SEO forecast the right way can help everyone on the team understand what’s coming. It can also help when asking for support, planning future work, or getting more budget.

Here’s how to do it step by step:

1. Begin with a Simple Chart:

Start your presentation with a chart that shows how your website traffic might grow over time. This chart can use keyword data or old traffic numbers to show the trend.

Why use a chart first?
Because it makes the numbers easy to understand. A quick look at the chart can show how traffic is expected to rise or fall.

This helps team members or managers see what’s going on without looking through a big spreadsheet.

The chart should quickly answer: “How much traffic are we expecting, and how sure are we about this?”

If you’re using our spreadsheet, the dashboard already includes this. You can:

  • Share your screen and explain the chart live.
  • Take a screenshot and add it to a report or presentation.
  • Export the chart as an image to use in your plan.

If you’re using a tool like Semrush to check traffic for new topics, you can still make a chart.

Let’s say we’re writing about “memory foam mattress” and want to focus on these keywords:

  • “memory foam mattress” – 750 possible visits each month.
  • “queen memory foam mattress” – 119 visits.
  • “king size memory foam mattress” – 33 visits.

We can put the keywords and traffic numbers into a new Sheet, then create a bar chart. The chart will show how much traffic each keyword might bring in.

2. Focus on Business Goals

Don’t just show traffic numbers. Explain why they matter. In the presentation, clearly point out:

  • How much growth do you expect.
  • What content or work will bring that growth.
  • How it helps bigger goals like getting more leads, sales, or showing off a new product.

The better we show how SEO supports business goals, the easier it is to get buy-in from others.

3. Link the Forecast to Possible Revenue

Traffic numbers are good, but showing how they could lead to more money makes the forecast stronger.

Here’s a simple way to guess your monthly revenue from the traffic forecast:

Monthly Traffic × Conversion Rate × Revenue per Sale = Monthly Revenue.

For example:
If we expect 10,000 visits per month, and our site usually converts 2% of visits into sales, and each sale brings in $150, the math would be: 10,000 × 0.02 × 150 = $30,000 per month.

This makes it clear how more traffic can help the business grow.

4. Be Clear About What You’re Assuming

A good forecast should be based on clear thinking. People will trust it more if they understand how it was made.

So, let’s share:

  • Where the data came from (like Google Search Console or keyword tools).
  • What method did we use (looking at trends, keywords, or both).
  • What each forecast scenario is based on, and how much it could change.

There’s no need to explain every formula. Just show that the numbers are based on real data and smart planning.

How to Keep the Forecast Correct Over Time


Forecasts are most helpful when they are updated. Checking in often helps us adjust the plan when needed and stay on track.

Here’s how to make sure the forecast stays useful:

Check the Forecast Every Month

At the end of each month, compare your forecasted traffic with your real traffic.

Go to your forecast dashboard and enter the actual clicks from Google Search Console in a new column.

Then, look at the difference between what was expected and what actually happened. Make a few quick notes on anything that may have changed the results.

This could be:

  • A new big content release.
  • Delays in publishing.
  • An unexpected jump in traffic.

Doing this helps us see if we’re on track and understand why things are going better or worse.

Update Your Assumptions When Things Change

Forecasts are based on what we think will happen. But as our plan changes, the forecast should change too.

Here’s what to do:

  • Go back and adjust growth rates or forecast settings in the spreadsheet (like changing a +30% to +20%).
  • If traffic is always higher or lower than expected, update the base numbers.
  • Run a new keyword check to see if search results or seasons have changed.

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Ready to Turn the Forecast Into Action?

Now that we know how much traffic we might get, it’s time to plan how to make it happen. With the right content, focus, and teamwork, we can use the forecast to:

  • Choose which pages to create, improve, or expand.
  • Focus more on topics that bring real results.
  • Set clear goals that link to traffic, rankings, or business growth.

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